Scientists predicted doomsday for November 13, 2026. Should we be worried? - Science Daily

In 1960, Science, a prominent science journal, published an article titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," which predicted that on this date, the human population would approach infinity, leading to self-annihilation. This bold claim garnered significant public attention, and surprisingly, it received careful scientific scrutiny due to the authors' seemingly sound research and mathematics.

The article was authored by Heinz von Foerster, an Austrian-American professor and cybernetics expert, along with his students Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot. They posited that human populations might grow beyond an exponential rate, suggesting that our descendants would not face starvation but rather be "squeezed to death" by overpopulation.

The article was frequently cited and its predictions appeared accurate until around 1993, when global population growth began to lag behind their forecasts. Today, the global birth rate is less than half of what it was in 1960, leading many to hope that November 13 will pass without incident.

The mid-20th century was marked by rising societal concerns regarding global population growth and its potential to result in resource scarcity and geopolitical conflict. This concern was often rooted in the Malthusian idea that while populations can grow exponentially, they are limited by their capacity to sustain themselves.

However, von Foerster and his co-authors argued that humans are exceptional in this regard. They suggested that increased population density could foster greater collaboration and problem-solving, allowing for population growth that exceeds even exponential rates. They utilized historical population estimates spanning 2,000 years to demonstrate that human numbers have consistently outpaced expectations.

The authors projected these historical figures into the future, predicting that by 2026, the global population would approach infinity. They concluded that the same collaborative capacity that has driven human development could also help avert the predicted catastrophe, advocating for a reduction in the global birth rate by half.

The publication created a stir, leading to coverage in major outlets like Time and The New York Times. It even inspired comic strips and was interpreted by some as a tongue-in-cheek commentary on population fears. Despite initial skepticism, the article's predictions were taken seriously, and the doomsday equation became a reference point in various scientific discussions throughout the 1960s to the 1980s.

Interestingly, the doomsday concept persisted partly because its early predictions were accurate, but by 1993, the global population began to fall behind the forecasts. This shift occurred as the world began to heed von Foerster's recommendations, resulting in a significant decline in birth rates.

As we approach the date of the predicted doomsday, it seems unlikely that we will face the catastrophic scenario described. However, the article serves as a reminder of how we present beliefs and ideas to the world. Von Foerster, who had a background in stage magic, demonstrated that an effective presentation can draw attention to serious issues through the use of extraordinary claims wrapped in scientific reasoning. This blend of rigorous science and theatrical flair has left a lasting impact on discussions surrounding population growth and its implications.